THE LAST POLLS ARE OUT AND ALL PREDICT DISASTER FOR THE TORIES
Labour is set to clinch an unprecedented super-majority as the Tories crash to their worst-ever result, the final megapolls of the election show.
Three MRP surveys released on Wednesday afternoon all predict that Sir Keir Starmer is on course to enter No 10 with a majority of more than 200.
In contrast the Tories would be reduced to a rump of just over 100 MPs – a historic low for the party – as a slew of Cabinet ministers lose their seats.
The final polls paint a dire picture for Rishi Sunak and come after one of his own top team admitted that Labour is destined for a huge victory.
Mel Stride, the Work and Pensions Secretary, warned that Sir Keir was on course to win “the largest majority any party has ever achieved”.
MRP surveys – standing for multilevel regression and poststratification – involve taking a much larger sample size than for normal polls and using a formula to calculate projected results for all 650 seats.
They are considered more reliable than conventional polls and have correctly forecast recent elections including the surprise 2017 hung parliament.
Here The Telegraph looks at the final three megapolls of the campaign.
More in Common
Result: Lab 430, Con 126, Lib Dem 52, SNP 16
More in Common’s survey, which was carried out for The News Agents podcast, finds that Labour is set for a landslide majority of 210.
The Tories would be reduced to just 126 seats with Cabinet ministers including Jeremy Hunt, Grant Shapps and Johnny Mercer being ousted.
Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats would have their best night since 2010, returning 52 MPs.
In Scotland, the scandal-hit SNP would suffer heavy losses with its representation in Westminster slashed by two-thirds from 48 to 16.
Reform would win only two seats despite getting 13pc of the vote, with Nigel Farage triumphing in Clacton and Lee Anderson holding on in Ashfield.
The poll is the third MRP published by More in Common and shows how the Tory position has deteriorated throughout the election campaign.
In the first survey published on June 3, the Conservatives were set to win 180 seats, while in the second one released on June 19 they were on 155.
Labour has been the main party to profit, with its projected number of MPs rising from 382 in the first survey to 406 in the second and now 430.
Focaldata
Result: Lab 444, Con 108, Lib Dem 57, SNP 15
Focaldata released the second MRP poll which showed the Conservatives suffering an even worse result, hanging on to only 108 seats.
The pollster predicted that Labour will return 444 MPs to Parliament, which would give Sir Keir a historic supermajority of 238.
On a cataclysmic night for the Tories, the silver lining would be leadership contenders Penny Mordaunt and James Cleverly narrowly clinging on.
Like the More in Common survey, Focaldata’s also predicts a surge for Sir Ed Davey’s Lib Dems, poised to win 57 seats.
Its wins would mostly come across the Blue Wall and would include taking the constituencies of Jeremy Hunt, the Chancellor, and Alex Chalk, the Justice Secretary.
The SNP would be reduced to 15 seats while Reform would win two, though according to this survey, Mr Farage would suffer defeat in Clacton.
It is the second MRP poll that Focaldata has published. The first, on June 24, produced a similar result with the Tories on 210 seats and Labour on 450.
YouGov
Result: Lab 431, Con 102, Lib Dem 72, SNP 18
The final MRP poll was published by YouGov and it is the worst of the three for the Tories, who are projected to barely scrape into three figures.
According to the pollsters, the Conservatives will win just 102 seats leaving Labour with a majority of 212 – the largest for any party since 1832.
Sir Keir would sit at the head of 431 MPs, the largest number in Labour history.
It would be the worst-ever result for the Tories with a dozen Cabinet ministers losing their seats under this projection, including Ms Mordaunt.
Mr Sunak’s party would be squeezed from both sides with the Lib Dems winning 72 seats, while Reform UK would take three constituencies.
The SNP would be reduced to 18 seats as Labour mounted a comeback in Scotland, with all three polls predicting a bad night for the nationalists.
It is the third MRP of the campaign published by YouGov and yet again the trend shows that Tory support has ebbed away over the past six weeks.
In the first survey released on June 3 the party was on track to win 140 seats, while in the second one on June 19 it was projected to hold on to 108.
2024-07-03T19:24:56Z dg43tfdfdgfd