‘I’LL NEVER VOTE LABOUR AGAIN’: WINTER FUEL DEEPENS STARMER’S DOOM AND GLOOM
The week began inauspiciously for Sir Keir Starmer. At the Monday morning meeting of key ministers and top Downing Street aides, not a single person remembered that it was the Prime Minister’s 62nd birthday.
In any case, Sir Keir did not have much time to celebrate. Parliament’s return from a four-week summer recess heralded the restart of Labour’s efforts to push through its legislative agenda as rapidly as possible. The week also saw a big decision on Israel, and the publication of the devastating report into the Grenfell Tower disaster.
However, looming over Labour’s internal discussions is the decision to cut winter fuel payments for around 10 million pensioners, with only those receiving pension credit now eligible for the allowance of £200 or £300, depending on age.
“There was no warning and no consultation in advance,” one veteran backbencher complained. “People are really taken aback, including a lot of the new intake.” While the announcement was made by Rachel Reeves in late July, only now that Parliament has returned have colleagues been able to discuss the issue face to face.
The Government initially seemed as if it would seek to avoid a vote on the change to the rules until after next month’s Budget, but ministers have now caved and announced a debate and vote on Tuesday. “I think there’s a general sense it’s not been handled or told especially well,” an MP loyal to Sir Keir admitted – but added: “I don’t think we’re looking at a significant rebellion beyond the usual suspects.”
The size of the rebellion will partly depend on how heavy handed the threats from Labour whips are. The Prime Minister met his first revolt – over the two-child benefit limit – with an aggressive response, suspending the seven left-wingers who defied the whip. An MP from the left claimed: “There is definitely factionalism at play here. They are itching to punish some of those they see as being on the left.”
Downing Street insiders are adamant they will not offer any significant concessions, such as delaying the new rules until next winter, in order to win over potential rebels. One Whitehall veteran, aghast at the way the announcement was sprung on MPs without any notice, commented: “It looks like an unforced error. Surely they will have to make some sort of concession.”
The Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and smaller opposition parties are making hay; all are likely to vote against the cut next week and are moving quickly to argue that Labour cannot be trusted to safeguard the interests of pensioners. Some in the Tory ranks, however, are quietly supportive of means-testing the payment so that well-off older people do not receive a handout they do not need. A Conservative source said: “The Tories are being totally shameless about this, completely unprincipled.”
A less raucous but no less consequential debate within Labour concerns the decision to withdraw around 30 arms export licences for components of weapons used by the Israeli military in Gaza. David Lammy’s announcement this week received only a cautious welcome from the left, with more than 300 licences remaining in place, and parts made for the F-35 fighter jets that Israel is using to strike targets in Gaza not included in the UK’s ban.
However, pro-Israel MPs are privately concerned about the message that the move sends. “Labour MPs who support Israel tend to be the most supportive of the general direction the party is going in under Keir, so we are not going to jump up and down in the chamber to complain about this,” an MP said. “But we have made our displeasure very clear behind the scenes.”
The recent history of the Labour Party and antisemitism “is not David Lammy’s or Keir Starmer’s fault”, they added, saying: “We have been tackling antisemitism in our party, but they seem to be taking sides in a conflict that involves the world’s only Jewish state. We don’t want to see a pattern of decisions that are all detrimental to Israel, we want to see a balance.”
The rows engulfing Sir Keir at the moment come against a backdrop of doom and gloom from ministers, who use every possible opportunity to point to the shabby state of the public realm and blame their Conservative predecessors for the mess.
The downbeat messaging has left some MPs uneasy and calling for a more positive vision to be set out. But the Prime Minister’s inner circle rejects the claim that they are painting too dark a picture – pointing to Boris Johnson’s upbeat persona which eventually grated with voters. “The last few years have shown that boosterism isn’t enough,” one ally of Sir Keir said. “You need to show delivery.”
A No 10 source added: “Fixing the foundations is crucial to rebuilding for the future. You can’t build a strong economy on a £22bn black hole.” Despite Tory accusations that the current administration is exaggerating the scale of the problems it has inherited, the feeling in Downing Street is one of genuine frustration at the difficulty of bringing the economy and public services back up to scratch. Some look wistfully back at the more benign start of the last Labour government – “Tony and Gordon had it relatively easy,” a source remarked.
Nevertheless, there is a plan to use the looming Labour conference and the Budget on 30 October to present a less gloomy picture, putting the country’s current struggles in the context of what Sir Keir calls “a decade of national renewal”.
The conference in Liverpool will be Labour’s biggest for over a decade, with security arrangements to match. The size of the fenced-off zone around the main conference centre is set to be much larger than last year – even though the Prime Minister himself is widely expected not to be there for the whole event, given that it clashes with the United Nations General Assembly meeting in New York.
Ms Reeves has repeatedly warned that the Budget will contain “difficult decisions”, but it will also seek to set out a path to higher growth in future which would ease the strain on the public finances – albeit that ministers admit privately it could take several years for any such improvement to appear in the statistics.
Just as important as the Budget is the spending review now under way, which will conclude early next year. i understands that the review will cover the whole period between now and the next general election which must take place by 2029, rather than the customary three years – although it could be revised during that time.
Any additional spending is likely to go to projects which save money in the long term, such as linking up different IT systems and databases to make government work more efficiently. Local councils are already braced for further possible cuts, even as the Chancellor considers a range of options for increasing taxes on wealthier savers to ensure she meets her self-imposed fiscal rules.
Before party conference or the Budget, Sir Keir must get through the TUC Congress which kicks off on Sunday in Brighton, the biggest annual gathering of trade unionists. “I don’t think Keir can take the unions for granted,” a source said. “People are very, very keen to ensure that there is no sort of return to austerity.” TUC president Matt Wrack, the strident head of the Fire Brigades Union, will speak not only at that event but also at Labour’s own conference and is expected to warn the Prime Minister not to go back on his promises to beef up workers’ rights and tackle child poverty.
The winter fuel vote is the same day as Sir Keir’s speech to the TUC, unhelpfully emphasising just how contentious the issue is for sections of the Labour movement. “It’s a really bad situation,” one MP said. “I’ve had areas in my constituency where even if people could probably do without the £300, they are furious. They’re saying, ‘I’ll never vote Labour again.’ Mind you, you hear that all the time and we still won a landslide majority!”
2024-09-07T05:03:12Z dg43tfdfdgfd